Regimes & Probabilities: what is measured, and how to trade around it
Measure the day first: regime, expected range and the setups that survive a placebo test. 9 modules, each its own book, all open. The syllabus and goals are here now; lesson texts are being written from source material.
Book IREG1 · Open
What "regime" and "high probability" mean
Goals
High probability is not edge: what a regime can tell you about width, behaviour and direction.
Lessons
High probability vs edge, and the honest scorecard of this course · in preparation
Width, behaviour, direction: what a regime can tell you · in preparation
Book IIREG2 · Open
Measuring the day: the volatility regime
Goals
Calibrate the range ruler by VIX bucket, and read term structure and VVIX as size signals.
Lessons
Calibration by regime: the ruler by VIX bucket, and NQ is not ES · in preparation
Term structure and VVIX: a size signal, not a direction · in preparation
Book IIIREG3 · Open
Dealer gamma as a regime
Goals
Gamma sign as a width regime, fade vs follow, and why the levels fail where the sign works.
Lessons
Gamma sign as a width regime · in preparation
Fade vs follow, and why gamma levels fail where the sign works · in preparation
Book IVREG4 · Open
The open: gap, location, overnight
Goals
Gap fill by size, wide days after big gaps, the open-location tree and the overnight session.
Lessons
Gap fill by size: base rate vs mirror · in preparation
Big gaps make wide days · in preparation
The open-location tree · in preparation
Overnight: drift, inventory, ON levels and the roll-stitch trap · in preparation
Book VREG5 · Open
After the bell: day type develops
Goals
Day types are labels, what initial-balance width tells you, and opening types vs the 10:00 displacement.
Lessons
Day types are labels, not forecasts · in preparation
The initial balance: what width does and does not tell you · in preparation
Opening types vs the 10:00 displacement · in preparation
Book VIREG6 · Open
Event and calendar regimes
Goals
The event clock, edges that died after publication, and OPEX mechanisms vs what was measured.
Lessons
The event clock, weekly and event-day rulers · in preparation
Edges that died: pre-FOMC drift, day-of-week, month-end · in preparation
OPEX, pinning and vanna/charm: mechanism vs measurement · in preparation
Book VIIREG7 · Open
The model catalogue
Goals
Level fades, breakouts, momentum and flow: which models hold up after costs and which never did.
Lessons
Level fades, confluence and famous numbers · in preparation
Breakouts: ORB and IB, and how costs eat thin edges · in preparation
Momentum and flow: what decayed and what was never there · in preparation
Book VIIIREG8 · Open
Validating your own edge
Goals
Base rates, placebos, pre-registration, holdouts and a forward scorecard you can run yourself.
Lessons
Base rates, placebos and a pre-registration you can build in a spreadsheet · in preparation
Holdouts, decay and regimes · in preparation
Statistical vs economic significance: costs and power · in preparation
Your forward scorecard and the candidate board · in preparation
Book IXREG9 · Open
The 09:30 regime card
Goals
Build the 09:30 regime card and test it on five archetype days.
Lessons
Building the 09:30 regime card · in preparation
Module project: five archetype days · in preparation
