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Start Here: Evidence & Expectations

How to judge a trading claim before you trade it: base rates, placebo levels and the grade on every lesson. Foundation → Practitioner. Lessons marked in production are being finalized.

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Start — EV1.01 Five numbers you need: rate, average, spread, the bell curve, an interval →

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EV1 Is it an edge or a base rate?

Hit rates, baselines and placebos: how to tell a real edge from distance and chance.

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EV1 · IS IT AN EDGE OR A BASE RATE? — CONCEPT DEPENDENCY MINI-GRAPH

EV1 Knowledge Web: Prerequisites ← Focus Lesson → Unlocks Next

EV1 Knowledge Web: Prerequisites ← Focus Lesson → Unlocks Next — Interactive figure
WHAT TO SEEHover any node to highlight its dependency edges and read its one-line definition; click any node to open that lesson.

EV2 The trading business & honest expectations

What retail day trading really returns, what it costs, and how to climb from sim to funded on measured gates.

0/6 completedModule EV2
EV2 · THE TRADING BUSINESS & HONEST EXPECTATIONS — CONCEPT DEPENDENCY MINI-GRAPH

EV2 Knowledge Web: Prerequisites ← Focus Lesson → Unlocks Next

EV2 Knowledge Web: Prerequisites ← Focus Lesson → Unlocks Next — Interactive figure
WHAT TO SEEHover any node to highlight its dependency edges and read its one-line definition; click any node to open that lesson.

EV3 Testing claims before you trust them

Sample size, multiple testing and the gap between explaining and forecasting. Read it before M5 Setups.

0/0 completedModule EV3
  1. Sample size and power · In preparation
  2. Many tries make false winners · In preparation
  3. Explains vs forecasts · In preparation
  4. Reading anyone's claims · In preparation